Forecasting the 2014 Elections

(written at the end of January...)

Currently on my mind, in light of a bunch of recent polls showing mixed results for the 2014 Generic Congressional Ballot (whether it was the Ds up 2 or 5 [yeah, Rasmussen gave a D+5] or having the Rs up a couple points), I might as well lay out what some of the potential scenarios could be and what I would forecast at this point in time. The Democrats would need to pick up roughly 18 seats (there are a few vacancies atm) to win back the house; in 2012, the Ds won 1.2% of the House vote for reference. As you can see, the map is pretty well gerrymandered for the GOP, and as far as open seats go (which are easier to flip either way), it's relatively even with a slight edge for the Democrats (despite 2 likely losses in NC and UT, there's lots of surprising open seats in very competitive districts for the GOP). Future retirements, which I'd say is still likely, can tip this scale one way further I suppose. The Republicans on the other hand would probably need to gain 6 seats to win back the Senate. There is, of course, the possibility of Independent Angus King of Maine caucusing with the GOP, or former Republican Senator Larry Pressler running as an Independent in South Dakota caucusing with either side, depending likely on who held the balance of power (and what if it were the Indies that did?).

Over 2013, the first 6 months more or less characterized an anti-climatic series of events that the public mostly bore through, giving Obama a slight post-election bump. The GOP 'cave' on the 'fiscal cliff', the realization of the sequester, the fight for background checks and its quiet defeat, immigration reform passing the Senate then having Marco Rubio come out against it, etc. It all pointed to a "things are okay I guess" mood that suggested Democrats would probably gain slightly over in on the generic ballot, perhaps a D+3 or so (give or take a point). Overall, what that would suggest (and what some of the retirements and the potential replacements would suggest) would mean a significant, likely high single digit, gain in seats in the House, and a loss of 1 or 2 in the Senate for the Democrats. The Democrats would also make slight gains in the state houses (+3 or so governorships, and a small amount of state legislative seats. Call this Scenario 1. A 6-year scratch (instead of the 6 year itch)

Then hit the Edward Snowden scandal. I really think it took awhile for the Obama administration to realize just how badly this undermined his position among young people, particularly the post-Cold War generation, 35 or younger or so. And the people who supported the NSA wiretapping scheme were either Partisan Democrats or Republicans who didn't want to be complete hypocrites, meaning, like background checks, its support was a mile wide and an inch deep. Meanwhile it disengaged a lot of Obama's 2008 and 2012 coalition. This reality, call it the July-September Q3 reality, eroded slightly the President's standing among voters who were perhaps the least likely to show up anyways in 2014 (young, moderate, Presidential-year voters). Democrats would do somewhere between their 2012 result or 2 points lower, meaning no general mood of the country would be reflected in these congressional results. In this case, I can see only marginal movement either way in the House, and the Senate perhaps possibly in the hands of Independent Senators like King. Scenario 2, call it "All Politics is Local" - would likely mean even results in the House and 3-5 net losses in the Senate for Democrats..

Then came the combined government shutdown (and possible debt ceiling default) and Obamacare rollout. While the press mostly ignored the Obamacare flop for the first two weeks in favor of the more potentially threatening story, we began seeing excellent numbers for Democrats - D+5, D+9 by the PPPs and Quinnipiacs of the world. So I'd estimate the "Democratic Wave" Scenario 3 of being between D+5.5-7.5. I'd currently estimate that it'd take a lucky D+5.5 to win back the House for the Democrats, and a D+7 to unanxiously take it back. Also, I'd still expect maybe a loss of 0-1 senate seats (maybe have a Democrat replaced by Indy Larry Pressler).

Scenario 4 Is what we saw starting in early November and continuing more or less into the New Year. Republicans started having some real generic ballot leads of 3 or 4, as no one really knew for sure if Obamacare's site would actually work and as soft Democrats seemed to abandon their support. Hey, it's possible, and in this case I'd expect an R+3 lead to yield 10 House seats and 6 Senate Seats.

A Scenario 5, being a Republican Wave, of R+7-8, highly unlikely and would probably bring another 4 Senate Seats and 5 House seats from Scenario 4, but I just simply can't see this one happening.


Update 4/16/2014:
Yup, seems the environment mostly seems the same except the Obamacare rollout seems to have mostly come through at the end. I was oscillating before between Scenario 1 and 2, but now I'm better comfortable with 1. If it's D+4 or 5, I can actually see a scenario where all Democratic incumbents survive and the Montana seat is kept, with WV/SD going as well as KY/GA over to the Dems, leaving the composition tied. At D+3, which is what i'll be predicting right now I'll say D+7 House Seats, R+2 Senate Seats (SD, WV, 2 of MT/GA/AR/LA to the GOP) and 3 Governorships to the Democrats (ME, FL, PA all seem like goners, AR to GOP and very possibly IL, but something like MI, WI, OH, GA, KS or AZ all have decent shots of flipping too, soo I'll go with +3). ~120 total state legislative seats to Democrats.

House: 7 to Democrats
Senate: 2 to Republicans
Governorships: 3 to Democrats